We can all be futurists. In our daily lives we can observe the world around us - news headlines, television advertisements, our workplaces - and consider what today's events and trends mean about the future of women. When we look ahead in this way, we can also see how our actions today can impact our future. Nancy Ramsey, futurist and co-author of The Futures of Women: Scenarios for the 21st Century, brought this message to an attentive crowd at the November WIM40+ gathering.
Ramsey began by explaining how scenarios can be used to put the future in a framework that enables us to better understand this nebulous concept of the future. Scenario planning has previously been used effectively for long range planning in corporate, government, and military settings. When applying the same techniques to the future status of women, Ramsey and co-author Pamela McCorduck, set out to answer the question "Will women and men be equal by 2020?"
Based on their research, Ramsey and McCorduck determined that the two most important driving forces determining the status of women worldwide are economics and human rights. Measuring possible outcomes by these two factors, Ramsey described a kind of matrix of possible scenarios.
Golden Ages
 economic status
human rights protections |
Status Quo
 economic status
human rights protections
|
Separatism
economic status
human rights protections |
Backlash
economic status
human rights protections |
These four scenarios are detailed in McCorduck and Ramsey's book. Ramsey suggests readers save the backlash section for last because "it's too depressing."
For that evening's talk, Ramsey described six driving forces for our future today and how current trends may play out in the future. These driving forces are technology, demographics, globalism, geopolitics, environment, and women. She advised us to think about these forces and what they mean for each of us, for our careers, our families, our businesses.
Technology
Technology has changed absolutely everything, both by making our lives easier in many ways, but also by adding an enormous level of complexity to life. Linear, Cartesian reasoning no longer applies as a model for describing current systems and structures. New models are being developed using bio-organisms and other, more complex systems. Technology is currently driving change and will continue to do so, says Ramsey. We will see more open, horizontal, transparent systems developed and used in innovative ways. Biotechnology will have unexpected impacts; the fastest growing demographic right now is people over 100 years old. Technology connects the whole world in unimagined ways, affecting retail business, education, and other arenas. And our sense of time is changing as we communicate across time zones, 24 hours a day.
Demographics
Tremendous changes are occurring in our world's demographics, which provide very exciting glimpses at the future. There are currently 6 billion people in the world. If we continue to grow at the same rate as we are today, we will reach 12 billion by the year 2050. It is possible to change this trend by educating more women. The education of women is directly related to how many children are born.
Ramsey offered other mind-opening demographic facts. Every 7 seconds someone turns 50! The future will be made up of just as many old people as children and young adults. Births are slowing down in the northern hemisphere (global north); 95% of births are occurring in China and the southern hemisphere. We can expect these people to relocate to areas where there is economic stability, further blending borders and cultures beyond what we have already experienced.
Globalism
Ramsey points out that technology has made it possible and necessary for a global economy. But with this globally integrated economic market come a variety of different scenarios. The United States cannot dominate a global economy in the same way it has in the past. The cultural imperialism of the U.S. is resented in this new structure; waves of nationalism can come into play within this global economy. Consumers hold great power as well. Because of technology, consumers become aware of labor practices in other countries and they start to care about these things. There is the potential for consumers to drive change all over the world. We have more mergers and acquisitions than ever before, at the same time that we have more startup 'dot coms' than ever before. Huge multi-national companies are forming to control large segments of industry at the same time that small, innovative companies are having great success. Which way will it go?
Geopolitics
Author's Note: Ramsey actually skipped this section in the interests of time, but returned to it during the question and answer period following her talk. The author adds it here to hold to the structure of the original outline.
The concept of the nation-state is breaking down, morphing and becoming unstable. The original nation-state concept is what put together multi-ethnic states like Yugoslavia. Now there is leaking into a kind of tribalism at the bottom, while at the same time we are seeing globalism at the top. The fear of instability during the Cold War kept the world in balance. Now there is a danger of imbalance because we have not yet created a new system to keep us together. The leaders of the countries are working in a globally connected system, but are not yet addressing how to hold the system together.
Environment
Ramsey sees environmental factors as the great wildcard in the future, because there are so many unknowns. While scientists and politicians may be telling us that there is no such thing as global warming, the insurance companies say that global climate changes are very real. We do not have any idea what the rate of change is, we just know that there are more storms, cold, and rain and other extremes of weather than in the past. We have no idea how to reverse these changes, nor do we have the political will to do anything about it. Will we change the way we get around, or will the internal combustion automobile continue to be our primary mode of travel?
Women
Ramsey explains that women are the sixth major factor that will drive our future. We are currently 51% of the population. More women are graduating from college than ever before - that's worldwide. The most profound social change this century has been in the status of women. Ramsey differentiates between two level at which change is taking place - hard progress and soft progress.
Hard progress refers to concrete changes such as laws being passed and enforced that change women's lives. Because of these changes, women are moving up, through the system. We are earning more money; we are voting. And because of this, women are being listened to. Ramsey reminds us that these new rights and economic freedom were not handed over to women. Women had to work hard to obtain these rights and economic status.
Soft progress describes changes more difficult to quantify and define. Women have learned that being equal does not mean being the same as. Being equal means having the same opportunities and the same rights as men. Women have learned confidence in themselves and in each other. At the same time, men have grown more comfortable with women's equality.
Women have the power to impact the political arena significantly in the future. Women's political agenda differs significantly from men. Political pollsters find that men are concerned with money and the economy, taxes, budget deficit, and military spending. Women are concerned with health care for themselves and their children, education, employment opportunities, participation in the political system, and technology. These agendas will become of more importance in the political process because of women.
Power to Change the Future
Ramsey's message is that we have the power to impact how the future plays out - as voters, as businesswomen, as consumers. After listening to Ramsey for one hour, it is easy to understand why the future is her favorite topic. Her excitement came across as she practically jumped in the air delivering her message. Looking at the future is not just an intellectual exercise. It can show us how what we do today can affect the world of the future. We are each empowered to shape the future of women and the world!
Read more about Nancy Ramsey at her web site:
www.nancyramsey.com
